Pillar

Buyer behavior signals: reading what buyers do, not what they say

Stated intent is cheap and frequently wrong. Observed behavior is harder to fake. This pillar is about the difference.

· 1 article

Ask a buyer whether they are interested and you will usually get a polite yes. Watch what the same buyer publishes, attends, hires for, and complains about, and you get something much closer to the truth.

Stated intent versus observed behavior

Stated intent is what someone tells you when asked directly. It is shaped by politeness, by not wanting to close a door, and by genuine uncertainty about their own plans. It is not dishonest. It is just a weak predictor.

Observed behavior is what a person or organization actually did in public. It costs something to produce, which is exactly why it carries more information.

What counts as a signal

A signal is a public, dated, verifiable thing that happened. The date matters as much as the content: a hiring post from last week and the same post from two years ago mean entirely different things.

SignalWhat it suggests
New hires in a specific functionBudget was approved for that function
Conference talks on a problemThe problem is owned and public
Leadership changesPriorities are about to be reset
Public vendor complaintsAn incumbent relationship is under strain
Funding or expansion newsA spending window is open

The trap of signal collecting

It is easy to collect signals and never use them. A list of interesting facts about an account is not intelligence. Intelligence is a ranked answer to the question "who should I contact first, and what do I say that they will recognize as relevant".

The discipline is to tie every signal to a decision. If a signal would not change who you contact or what you open with, it is trivia.

Verification

Every signal should come with a link to where it came from. Not because anyone will check every one, but because a claim that cannot be traced will eventually turn out to be wrong in front of a customer.

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