Definition

Buying signal

A public, dated, verifiable event that suggests an organization has an active need or an open spending window.

A buying signal is a public, dated, verifiable event that suggests an organization has an active need, an approved budget, or an open window for a decision.

What separates a signal from a guess

Three properties. It must be public, so it can be checked. It must be dated, because the same event means different things at different distances in time. And it must be verifiable, meaning there is a source you can link to.

An inference that fails any of those three is a hypothesis. Hypotheses are useful, but they should not be presented to a colleague or a customer as if they were evidence.

Common examples

• A role posted for a function related to the problem you solve
• A leadership change in the relevant part of the organization
• A funding round, acquisition, or market expansion announcement
• A public talk or article by a person who owns the problem
• Public dissatisfaction with an incumbent vendor

What a signal is not

A signal is not a guarantee of intent. It raises the probability that a conversation will be relevant. It does not promise that a budget exists, that the timing is right, or that you are the right answer.

Treating a signal as a commitment is how an opening message ends up sounding presumptuous, which costs more than sending nothing.

Decay

Signals expire. A hiring post from last week and the same post from eighteen months ago describe completely different situations, and only one of them is worth acting on. Any system that stores signals without weighting them by age will eventually surface something embarrassing.