Definition

Pipeline coverage

The ratio of open pipeline value to the target it has to produce. Useful as a sanity check, dangerous as a goal.

Pipeline coverage is the ratio of open pipeline value to the number that pipeline has to produce. Three times coverage means three dollars of open opportunity for every dollar of target.

What it is good for

It is a fast sanity check. If coverage is well below the historical win rate implies, the problem is arithmetic rather than execution, and no amount of improvement at the end of the cycle will fix it.

Why it is dangerous as a goal

The moment coverage becomes a target, it becomes easy to hit, because the numerator is made of estimates. Deals get added, close dates get extended into the measured period, and values get set optimistically. None of that is dishonest and all of it inflates the ratio.

A coverage ratio built from unexamined deals measures how much has been entered, not how much is available.

Making it mean something

Coverage is only informative if the pipeline underneath it has been filtered for reality. The cheapest filter is evidence of recent buyer activity: separate the deals where the buyer has done something verifiable in the last thirty days from the deals where they have not, and compute coverage on the first group alone.

That number is smaller, less comfortable, and much more predictive.

Relationship to win rate

Coverage without a stable win rate is meaningless, since the required ratio is derived from the win rate. If the win rate itself is drifting, coverage will appear healthy right up until it does not.